Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over? Why BTC May Finally Break the Trend

If history is anything to go by, then Bitcoin should plunge next year—and crypto markets will be in the red. But just because it’s happened before doesn’t mean it will happen again. 

One of the hottest debates raging right now across the crypto industry is whether or not Bitcoin will stick to its usual four-year cycle. Experts have been chiming in from both sides of the spectrum, and Crypto X is rife with hot takes (as ever).

Last year, Bitcoin did something it hadn’t done before when it hit a new high ahead of the halving, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This has led some analysts and observers to believe that Bitcoin’s typical cycle—when the coin hits a high the year after its halving, only to plunge by 70-80% the following year—is finished.

“It’s just common sense,” Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas told Decrypt. “More stable owners, more stable price,” he added, referring to the ETF investors. 

The approval of ETFs in January 2024 allowed millions of dollars in capital previously locked out of the markets to flood into the space. Months after they started trading, the leading cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high. The coin has since broken new highs off the back of crypto-friendly President Donald Trump’s victory, rising yet again to a fresh peak last week.

Investors in the space are now more sophisticated, too: Institutions from Harvard University and Goldman Sachs have bought Bitcoin—and via the ETFs, no less. Such investors are less likely to panic-sell, and are buying to hold for the long term, Balchunas said. 

“I think the ETF kicked off this new phase, and I don’t know if the four year cycle would apply. I don’t want to say never, but again, you have to use common sense,” he said. “Volatility is based on the people who hold it.”

Bitcoin was recently trading for $115,492 per coin, up more than 2% over the past day and by 22% year-to-date, according to CoinGecko. It broke a new record of $124,128 on August 14.

In the previous bull run, Bitcoin peaked at a high of $69,044 in November 2021. But the hype didn’t last and a brutal correction occurred, leading Bitcoin to crash below $16,000 in November 2022 after a long list of crypto companies went bankrupt following the collapse of Terra—most notably the prominent digital asset exchange, FTX. 

Bitcoin is now much more mature, however, and further integrated into traditional markets, noted André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Europe head of research.

“Our thesis is that macro- and demand-related factors are definitely becoming increasingly more important due to Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the global financial system,” he said.

Dragosch added that the performance effect from the halving—which occurs approximately every four years and slashes the BTC rewards earned by network-supporting miners—has been declining, while demand-related factors are becoming increasingly important. 

But not all experts agree. A report by CoinGlass this week used data to point out that this year is looking increasingly like previous cycles—especially in terms of price action. 

The report said that the flagship coin’s price movements are echoing what was seen in the cycles of 2015-2018 and 2018–2022, and that capital inflows into the asset are “showing signs of fatigue.”

“Alongside this, long-term holders have realized profit levels comparable to past euphoric phases, reinforcing the impression of a market late in its cycle,” the report read. 

But it’s worth noting that every cycle, there are quirks—and HODLers will ultimately have to wait to see how things play out. 

“Every time that we think, ‘This time it’s different,’ it seems that the market corrects us and shows us: ‘Nope, this time it’s exactly the same,'” Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Luxor, told Decrypt.