TL;DR
- Macro set the mood: the hosts discussed US–China headlines, a widely expected 25 bps Fed cut and a cooler CPI print alongside a mixed earnings season.
- Crypto = range city: BTC and ETH both sat between big support and big resistance, producing fake-outs in both directions.
- Alts: First things first: Alts got absolutely murdered and chart structures have not yet been fixed. So pick your spots: with sentiment bruised after the Oct 10 liquidations, outliers with clean narratives (e.g., ZEC, HYPE, TAO) drew the focus while newer names (XPL) showed how unforgiving this tape can be.
- Playbook: stay objective, trade the range, let leaders confirm strength and keep risk tight until the market chooses a direction. This is a good time to get comfortable with trading less.
Vibe check
October is often “Uptober,” but this one felt more like Down-tober. After the Oct 10 flush and a lot of chop since, the big question on the space: was it just coming up for air or did it mark a warning for the rest of the year?
Macro in a minute
- US–China: rising trade-tension headlines framed Oct 10’s wobble; recent diplomacy cooled things a touch, but sentiment remains cautious.
- The Fed: a highly priced-in 25 bps cut landed, but Chair Powell’s “December isn’t a foregone conclusion” tone clipped risk appetite.
- Data and earnings: a delayed CPI came in softer; bank results started strong; big tech was mixed; crypto-adjacent names (Coinbase, MicroStrategy) printed decent numbers. AI remains the equity market’s locomotive.
- Bottom line: the macro backdrop leans constructive, but the path is jagged.
“It doesn’t want to go up, but it’s not going down either. So… we’re chopping.”
BTC: respect the range
Higher-timeframe lens: through this cycle, BTC has often based around the 3-day 100EMA. We’ve logged about three weeks ping-ponging in that neighborhood.
- Structure: every dip into the support band has bounced, yet pushes into ~114–116 have repeatedly faded.
- What would help
Bullish: reclaim the EMA cluster and hold above ~116 (roughly mid-range) to show trend intent.
Bearish: a clean break and time spent below the June-low area (~high-90s/low-100s) without swift buy-back would dent the cycle case.
Read: it’s a range. Treat it like one.
ETH: same song, slightly softer
Correlation with BTC remains high, but ETH’s structure looked a touch weaker on the Space: reclaim attempts have been less convincing, and EMAs still point down. Do business where it’s clean — either a proper flush and reclaim of obvious lows or a decisive EMA flip back up. Until then, patience.
Alts: narratives or nothing
Context: Oct 10 underscored the lack of bids down the tail. With majors undecided, broad “max-long alts” is not the base case.
How the hosts bucketed things:
- Most alts — broke structure on Oct 10 and are lingering near lows without leadership.
- New launches (e.g., XPL) — harsh lesson in how unforgiving the current tape is.
- Clean-narrative outliers — still tradable with discipline:
ZEC (Zcash): textbook strength out of a long consolidation; respected MAs even through the dump. Coming into multi-year resistance (2017/2021 reference points). No hero shorts; longs must accept rug-risk at inflection.
HYPE: range-respecting outperformer. Attempts above range high failed cleanly; now mid-range retest is the tell. Leaders like this often front-run risk-on or warn when they can’t reclaim.
TAO: strong relative trend; mid-range + yearly open acting as the gate. A hold or reclaim signals “risk can expand.” A deviate-and-fail says “not yet.”
“If the outperformers can’t break out or hold support, the rest probably isn’t worth your attention.”
Levels and triggers the hosts are watching
- BTC
- Support: the post-flush base area (the hosts’ composite around 106 repeatedly defended) and the June-low zone (~high-90s/low-100s).
- Resistance: the EMA stack and ~116 (mid-range).
- ETH
- Similar map: clustered EMA resistance + HTF range resistance + Q/O overhead; interest only on a clean sweep and reclaim lower down or a decisive flip back to uptrend.
- Leaders (ZEC / HYPE / TAO)
- ZEC at multi-year supply
- HYPE around mid-range
- TAO battling mid-range + yearly open
Trading playbook
- Accept the regime: it’s range and chop until the market proves otherwise.
- Be selective: IF you trade, favor leaders with narratives over “everything beta.”
- Let price speak: wait for reclaims, closes and time-based confirmation; avoid anticipating breakouts.
- Defensive sizing: keep risk tight and take profits; this tape punishes overstaying.
What’s next
November often skews constructive, but October reminded us that seasonality isn’t a guarantee. With less fresh data flow and lingering macro watch-items, focus on levels, leadership and how quickly dips get bought or tops get sold.
“Stay objective. It’s chop until it isn’t.”
Watch the replay & follow along
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Housekeeping
Thanks to everyone who joined live and on the replay. Trading Spaces runs every two weeks. Follow @krakenfx, @krakenpro and @Dentoshi for stream times, charts and highlights.
